国际原油价格波动对中国宏观经济影响的重新考察

本文对国际原油价格波动对中国宏观经济的影响进行了重新考察。研究发现:国际原油价格通过影响采购经理人指数进而影响中国主要宏观经济变量,采购经理人指数的引入,完善了国际原油价格波动对中国宏观经济影响的时序传导机制,从而提高了实证结果的显著性。实证结果显示:国际原油价格上涨对中国消费者价格指数有正向影响,但这一结果并不显著;同时国际原油价格上涨并未改变中国经济增长的总体态势。VEC实证模型的估计结果表明:国际原油价格与中国宏观经济变量之间存在显著的协整关系,而且国际原油价格波动对中国宏观经济的影响存在滞后效应。     

On the forecasting of the challenging world future scenarios

Logistic and power law methodologies for both retrospective and prospective analyses of extended time series describing evolutionary growth processes, in environments with finite resources, are confronted. While power laws may eventually apply only to the early stages of said growth process, the Allee logistic model seems applicable over the entire span of a long range process. On applying the Allee logistic model to both the world population and the world gross domestic product time series, from 1 to 2008 AD, a projection was obtained that along the next few decades the world should experience a new economic boom phase with the world GDP peaking around the year 2020 and proceeding from then on towards a saturation value of about 142 trillion international dollars, while the world population should reach 8.9 billion people by 2050. These results were then used to forecast the behavior of the supply and consumption of energy and food, two of the main commodities that drive the world system. Our findings suggest that unless the currently prevailing focus on economic growth is changed into that of sustainable prosperity, human society may run into a period of serious economical and social struggles with unpredictable political consequences.     

金融危机以来我国沿海港口货物吞吐量影响因素研究——兼论我国经济由外需拉动向内需驱动转型的一个证据

通过建立基于贸易引力模型的我国沿海港口货物吞吐量影响因素的VAR模型,分别考察了交通运输业固定投资、人民币汇率、世界经济状况和国内经济状况对我国沿海港口货物吞吐量的影响,并以金融危机以来的数据作为样本对该模型进行了实证检验.由脉冲响应和方差分解分析发现:世界经济发展状况对我国沿海港口货物吞吐量的影响最大,且世界经济的复...     

中国入世10周年与全球多边贸易体制的变化

本文回顾了中国加入世界贸易组织10年来的改革与发展历程,指出中国对全球多边贸易体制的主要贡献在于推动国际经贸发展、反对贸易保护主义、忠实履行多边贸易规则、努力协调多边贸易谈判、积极参与多边贸易机制建设以及切实维护发展中国家利益。10年来,多边贸易体制的变迁主要表现为力量结构、议题结构及外部透明度的变化。展望未来,多边贸易体制的改革应重在制度建设与反对贸易保护主义。基于加入世界贸易组织以来的实践经验,本文得出了我国参与全球经济治理的几点启示。     

金融危机以来我国沿海港口货物吞吐量影响因素研究——兼论我国经济由外需拉动向内需驱动转型的一个证据

通过建立基于贸易引力模型的我国沿海港口货物吞吐量影响因素的VAR模型,分别考察了交通运输业固定投资、人民币汇率、世界经济状况和国内经济状况对我国沿海港口货物吞吐量的影响,并以金融危机以来的数据作为样本对该模型进行了实证检验。由脉冲响应和方差分解分析发现:世界经济发展状况对我国沿海港口货物吞吐量的影响最大,且世界经济的复苏将显著提高沿海港口货物吞吐量;交通运输业固定投资在经过一个滞后期后,也会对沿海港口货物吞吐量起到积极的作用;人民币汇率对我国沿海港口货物吞吐量的影响不可忽略,且汇率上升(即本币贬值)将提高沿海港口货物吞吐量;而国内经济发展状况则与我国沿海港口货物吞吐量之间并不存在显著的确定关系,这或表明我国经济的发展方式正由外需拉动向内需驱动转型。     

Transforming competitiveness into economic benefits: Does tourism stimulate economic growth in more competitive destinations?

This research note investigates the impact of a destination's competitiveness upon tourism's contribution to economic growth using a cross-section with 131 countries. Destination competitiveness is measured with the World Economic Forum's Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index, while tourism's contribution to economic growth is measured with the growth decomposition methodology. Results reveal that destination competitiveness has no statistically significant impact on tourism's contribution to economic growth. Tourism policy implications and directions for future research are also discussed.     

Tourism expenditures and crisis transmission: A general equilibrium GVAR analysis with network theory

According to the World Tourism Organization, during the last decades, tourism has become one of the largest and most dynamic economic industries in the world. In this work, we employ a Network General Equilibrium GVAR model to analyze the impact of tourism expenditures on GDP and our approach allows for the existence of dominant economies in the system. The model is estimated simultaneously as a system of equations for a large panel of world economies and the results show that the less developed economies are quite vulnerable to changes in the tourism expenditures of the dominant economies. Meanwhile, USA is found to be largely unaffected by shocks in the tourism expenditures of the less developed economies.     

霍夫斯坦特国家文化模型与世界价值观调查的比较研究

本文通过对世界价值观调查的研究评介,与霍夫斯坦特国家文化模型进行对比,回顾了二十年来运用世界价值观调查进行研究取得的部分成果,对其研究方法作以探索,以期对未来跨文化比较管理的研究起到借鉴作用。     

Watching the FIFA World Cup 2010 in England: the sojourner perspective

Recent years have seen an emergence of a varied academic literature focused on the football fan, with a wealth of studies exploring issues such as hooliganism, fan behaviour and fan identification. No research, however, has documented the experiences and perspectives of the international sojourner, who follows the televised tournament far away from the home country. This paper offers a contribution to the literature on fandom by focusing on the experiences of becoming a temporary fan among a sample of nine international students in England during the period of the 2010 FIFA World Cup. It shows the importance of the tournament for students away from their home nation, acting as a point of celebration and as a means of bringing sojourners of the same nationality together to support their team. It reveals how the tournament offered escape from stress, became a focal point for social interaction, provided the opportunity for recreation of home, and for the reinforcement of feelings of national identity.     

A framework for monitoring during the planning stage for a sports mega-event

This paper proposes a monitoring framework to be used during the planning stage for a sports mega-event. The research identifies a lack of monitoring and evaluation studies during the development stage for sports mega-events. Importantly, it notes the absence of research which evaluates an event systematically from the outset of the process and from the perspectives of host residents and event planners. The framework was developed on the basis of the philosophical approach of pragmatism; it focused on a sustainable development perspective, and it was applied to a case study of the Kaohsiung 2009 World Games. A survey of the views of 606 host residents about the potential impacts of the event revealed that the respondents tended to show higher levels of agreement on the host benefits. The results of 38 interviews with various stakeholders indicated big gaps in both the city's long-term development aspirations and the Games themselves and also in the event strategies adopted. Using this information, key sustainability issues can be identified and monitored during the event planning stage so that the desirable outcomes of events can be enhanced and then sustained in the longer term.